June 2, 2020 - Market Update

Mortgage origination flows were 23% below the 5 day average at $5.69B vs $7.43B. The Fed reinvestment operation reached the maximum purchase amount yesterday and is cleared to purchase up to $1.57B in 15yr and $2.97B in 30yr UMBS securities today. 

On Monday, U.S. equities closed up on the day, seemingly shrugging off the unrest seen across the country.  The S&P 500 Index gained 11.42 points, ending at 3,055.73, the DIJA increased 91.91 points to 25,475.02 and the NASDAQ finished up by 62.18 points, closing at 9,552.05. The 10yr bond was relatively unchanged. The majority of the country has entered some form of COVID-19 restriction easing as the country pushes for some form of normality. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased from 8.36% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 8.46% as of May 24, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, just over 4.2 million homeowners are now in forbearance plans. Key findings of MBA’s Forbearance and Call Volume Survey – May 18 to May 24, 2020

• Total loans in forbearance grew relative to the prior week from 8.36% to 8.46%. This 10-basis- point weekly increase was the smallest increase reported since the week of March 9.
  • By investor type, the share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased relative to the prior week: from 11.60% to 11.82%.
  • The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance increased relative to the prior week: from 6.36% to 6.39%.
  • The share of other loans (e.g., private-label securities and portfolio loans) in forbearance increased relative to the prior week: from 9.54% to 9.67%.
• Loans in forbearance as a share of servicing portfolio volume (#) as of May 24, 2020:
  • Total: 8.46% (previous week: 8.36%)
  • IMBs: 8.21% (previous week: 8.11%)
  • Depositories: 9.19% (previous week: 9.13%)

After first reaching a high of 2,000 active US crude oil and natural gas rigs in early 2008 and then again in late 2011, the number of active rigs last week fell to just 318, breaking the record low of 339 set the week before! The rig count had finally stabilized at 772 the week of 3/17/20, down from a recent peak of slightly over 1,000 as recently as 4/19/19.