July 30, 2020 - Market Update

Stocks – Stocks opened lower following the sharpest U.S. economic contraction reported on record in the second quarter. Initial estimates from the Commerce Department indicate the economy shrank 32.9% in the three months ending June 30th. Investors will look to additional earnings reports from major industries in Europe and the U.S. to further gauge the depth and longevity of the downturn as many companies have revoked their full year guidance in recent months. Technology giants: Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet are set to release their latest financial results today after markets close.

Treasury – Bond pricing improved, and treasury yields decreased this morning after GDP showed a record pull back. The 10-year U.S. Treasury is currently yielding 0.540%. GDP fell 32.9% in the second quarter, a new record for the U.S economy. Personal consumption made up roughly 25% of the drop, with services seeing the bulk of the drop. Initial jobless claims continue to remain over 1 million a week, with 1.43 million filing last week. Both releases point to the uphill battle ahead to economic recovery. The FOMC held interest rates steady yesterday, noting that economic growth was still well below pre-pandemic levels, however the FOMC remains accommodative in stance as they continue to monitor the economic recovery.

MBS – Mortgage-Backed Securities see another strong day coinciding with the constant rallying of MBS prices. Lower Fannie 30 Year coupons see a 3-5 tick improvement relative to the 10 Year Treasury as higher Fannie coupons track the benchmark. Ginnies, aside from 3s, stay relatively flat to the benchmark. Ginnie 3s however, see a 5-tick improvement in performance. Fannie 15 Years close the day tracking the performance of the 5 Year Treasury. Trading activity picks up as $243 billion exchanges, including $15 in Specified Pools